Only the River Knows

Spawning Ground for Boogey Men

Still Vogt insists there is precious little evidence to support the serial killer theory.

To Vogt, the similarities in the physical descriptions of the victims is hardly compelling evidence that a serial killer is at large. While it is true that specific binge killers tend to be drawn to specific types of victims, in the largely homogeneous upper reaches of the Midwest, a serial killer would have to really hunt to find a young man who didn't match the profile of the victims, she said.

"The coincidence that people always pull up is that they're all college-age, they all have brown hair and they're all white," Vogt said. "Well, that describes 95 percent of our population."

What's more, she said, when it comes to accidental death by drowning, her preliminary research indicated that young men were ten times more likely than young women to perish that way.

The fact is there is no record that she has been able to find of a serial killer using drowning as a technique. "I belong to an international group of homicide researchers (and) before we even wrote our letter...I sent a note... to the group saying, 'Is there anything I'm missing here?'

"They said, 'Nope. It just does not fit the pattern of serial killers,'" she said.

To be sure, there have been cases where killers intentionally drowned their victims, and in some cases, rare though they are, drowning has even been used as a method for multiple murders. Andrea Yates, the deranged Texas mother who drowned her five young children, is one example. But serial killers, who carefully plan their attacks and thrill in the execution, are a different sort of beast, she said. "Serial killers, they want to see people die."

Andrea Yates

As psychotherapist and profiler John Kelly told Stuff, the evidence was at best inconclusive. Simply put, the La Crosse drownings were "pretty weird," he told the magazine. "They could have been murdered, but the person was just so good at doing it that they didn't leave any physical evidence. If a serial killer is involved, they're going to make sure that person is dead before they throw them in the river. They're not going to take any chances that they could be identified in court. I suppose (the killer) could sedate (the victim) and drown him in a tub or something like that and then throw him in the river."

But scenarios like that, Vogt believes, stretch the limits of plausibility.

The way Vogt sees it, the statistics, the history of alcohol abuse in the community, and the lack of trust between the police and some in the community, taken together, all make it more plausible that the specter of a serial killer is more bogus than boogey man.

The way Vogt puts it, "When you hear hooves behind you, expect to turn around and see horses, not zebras."

There are many, however, who think there is good reason to believe that there is at least one zebra in the herd.

Dr. Maurice Godwin

"The probability is virtually zero that five intoxicated students just happened to walk similar or even different routes (and) end up on the river bank," said criminal investigative psychologist Dr. Maurice Godwin, who analyzed the police and autopsy reports in the case at Stuff's behest. In his mind, there is a high probability that there is, or was, a serial killer in La Crosse, involved in some, if not several of the deaths in the past seven years.